Prophecy Alert: Earthquakes Officially on the Rise


Great, terrible earthquakes.Catastrofe stradale

Tremendous, numerous, powerfully intense storms.

This is the meaning of the Greek term megas seismos.

And this is what Jesus prophesied would increase dramatically in the generation leading up to His return.

“’Teacher,’ they asked, ‘when will these things happen? And what will be the sign that they are about to take place?’… [Then he said to them], ‘There will be great earthquakes [megas seismos], famines and pestilences in various places, and fearful events and great signs from heaven.’” (Luke 21:7, 11 NIV)

Here are the Strong’s definitions for megas seismos:

GreekWord_megas_IMG02

GreekWord_seismos_IMG02

After events like this week’s 7.5 earthquake in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India, as well as the world’s strongest hurricane on record, hurricane Patricia —one can wonder if these birth pangs could be the signs Jesus warned us about.

In this two-part series, we will look at both prophetic possibilities— earthquakes and storms— and ask the question:

Have these things increased in frequency and/ or intensity in our generation?

The issue is clearer today than ever before.

On both counts, the answer is a resounding YES.

 

Jesus’ Prophecy: Storms or Earthquakes?

There is a lot to be said about the increase in major storms in recent years; I’ll save that for next week.

In this article, we will look at earthquakes.

Conspiracy theorists and end-times enthusiasts are only too happy to jump to the conclusion that earthquakes are on the increase; skeptics, on the other hand, are sometimes too quick to dismiss the possibility.

So let’s move past the hype and get down to the facts. What does the data say?

 

Have Earthquakes REALLY Increased?

I remember researching this question in 2012 and 2013. At that time, the data was mixed. Some sources seemed to show an increase in the number of earthquakes each year. Others claimed that this was not the case; that it only seemed earthquakes were increasing because of improved reporting and record-keeping.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) fell into the latter camp. Here’s an excerpt from their FAQ page, citing data through 2011:

USGS FAQ: Has earthquake activity been increasing?

A temporary increase or decrease in seismicity is part of the normal fluctuation of earthquake rates…

…As a result of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about earthquakes more quickly than ever before.

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 16 major earthquakes in any given year, which includes 15 earthquakes in the magnitude 7 range and one earthquake magnitude 8.0 or greater. In the past 38 years, from 1973 through 2011, our records show that we have exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes only 8 times, in 1976, 1990, 1995, 1999, 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

And this, from Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), published in 2013:

“Is the number of earthquakes increasing?”

No, the number of earthquakes is not increasing compared with the recorded history, according to data from the US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center. (See: Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase? )

The USGS estimates that several million earthquakes occur in the world each year. Many go undetected because they hit remote areas or have very small magnitudes. There are more seismographs installed worldwide every year, so more earthquakes can be detected. However, the number of large earthquakes (magnitude 6.0 and greater) has stayed relatively constant. See: Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 2000 – 2010

 

What I found after sifting through the data was this: there did appear to be a small upturn in the number of M3+ earthquakes each year starting in 2009. However, it wasn’t clear if this would be a blip on the radar, or the beginning of a more radical climb, as you can see in this graph below.

Figure 1- Showing the cumulative number of earthquakes M≥3 from 1973-2012, the red line indicates what would be a steady rate of M≥3 earthquakes per year. You can see the departure from that rate shortly after 2000, then a sharper increase in 2009.

Figure 1- The red line indicates what would be a steady rate of M≥3 earthquakes per year. A departure from that rate begins after 2000, with a sharper increase in 2009.

 

This upward trend became much more obvious, however, when looking at earthquakes registering as M≥6— megas seismos. Look at this graph of stats from the United States Geological Survey’s Earthquake Hazards Program.

 

MegaEarthquakes_4_jpg

 

Here a clearer line emerges – we can see an obvious increase in the average number of major earthquakes each year.

Now go back to the statistic given on the USGS FAQ page:

In the past 38 years, from 1973 through 2011… we have exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes only 8 times, in 1976, 1990, 1995, 1999, 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2011. (emphasis added)

What’s easy to miss in that statement is this:

In the 38 years leading up to 2011, the average number of major earthquakes was exceeded only 8 times.

4 of those 8 times were in the last 5 years of that period.

Bottom line, looking at seismological data through 2013, there is some evidence for an uptick in the number of quakes in general. The evidence begins to be compelling when you focus in on mega-quakes.

But something even more dramatic has happened since then.

Namely, 2014 and 2015.

 

Prophetic Spike

My how things have changed. Remember that first graph I showed you? Here’s what it looks like today.

MegaEarthquakes_5_jpg
Figure 2- Cumulative number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.0 or larger in the central and eastern United States, 1970–2015. The long-term rate of approximately 29 earthquakes per year increased sharply starting around 2009.

 

Though there are certainly still naysayers, a very new and different picture of the situation has emerged since 2013. Here’s a snapshot of that change in headlines from 2014 & 2015:

NEWSWEEK | APRIL 28, 2015

…a series of life-threatening “extreme geological events” – earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis is predicted by a group of eminent geologists and geophysicists including University College London’s Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of Geophysical and Climate Hazards…

“Climate change may play a critical role in triggering certain faults in certain places where they could kill a hell of a lot of people,” says Professor McGuire. Some of his colleagues suspect the process may already have started.

 

LIVE SCIENCE | June 27, 2014

If you think there have been more earthquakes than usual this year, you’re right. A new study finds there were more than twice as many big earthquakes in the first quarter of 2014 as compared with the average since 1979.

“We have recently experienced a period that has had one of the highest rates of great earthquakes ever recorded,” said lead study author Tom Parsons, a research geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Menlo Park, California.

Within the central and eastern United States, the number of earthquakes has increased dramatically over the past few years. Between the years 1973–2008, there was an average of 21 earthquakes of magnitude three and larger in the central and eastern United States. This rate jumped to an average of 99 M3+ earthquakes per year in 2009–2013, and the rate continues to rise. In 2014, alone, there were 659 M3 and larger earthquakes…

This increase in earthquakes prompts two important questions:

Are they natural, or man-made?

What should be done in the future as we address the causes and consequences of these events to reduce associated risks?

April 2015 – GEOLOGY

If it seems like earthquakes and erupting volcanoes are happening more frequently, that’s because they are. Looking at global magnitude six (M6) or greater from 1980 to 1989 there was an average of 108.5 earthquakes per year, from 2000 to 2009 the planet averaged 160.9 earthquakes per year: that is a 38.9% increase of M6+ earthquakes in recent years.

LIVE SCIENCE | May 2014

Are you wondering if it’s your imagination, or is there really an uptick in earthquakes?… Live Science posed this question to seismologists at their annual meeting…Not surprisingly, some had pithy responses.

“I’ve been answering that question for 34 years,” said a smiling John Ebel, a professor at Boston College in Massachusetts. Translation: Nothing to see here. Move along.

But Thorne Lay, a professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz, thinks there’s something interesting happening with the world’s great earthquakes.

Between 1900 and 2004, the average yearly rate of quakes of magnitude 8 and larger was 0.65, Lay told Live Science. In the past 10 years, that rate jumped to 1.8 — an increase of almost a factor of 3, he said. But only the biggest quakes are becoming more frequent. There isn’t a similar rise in smaller earthquakes.

“There’s a big mystery there,” Lay said. Unfortunately, it’s a tough one for researchers to solve.”

Earthquake town illustrationDr. Lay is right. There is indeed a mystery happening in 2015. Major earthquakes are increasing as Jesus predicted. Whatever the cause (and there are many theories)— from climate change to fracking to a decrease in sun activity— Jesus’ words are coming true.

And the same Jesus who made this accurate forecast also prophesied that our generation— the one that sees these signs— will see the return of Christ.

As we move through the prophetic timeline, scientists, skeptics, and scoffers will eventually catch up to the reality of Christ’s words.

But just remember when you’re deciding who to believe, that the experts might catch up a little too late.

“But at midnight there was a shout, ‘Look, the bridegroom is here! Come out to meet him.’ Then all the virgins woke up and trimmed their lamps. The foolish ones said to the wise, ‘Give us some of your oil, because our lamps are going out.’ ‘No,’ they replied. ‘There won’t be enough for you and for us. Go instead to those who sell oil and buy some for yourselves.’ But while they had gone to buy it, the bridegroom arrived, and those who were ready went inside with him to the wedding banquet. Then the door was shut. Later, the other virgins came too, saying, ‘Lord, lord! Let us in!’ But he replied, ‘I tell you the truth, I do not know you!’ Therefore stay alert, because you do not know the day or the hour.” (Matthew 25:6-13)

Love means that, at some point, you have to trust another person. You have to take a leap of faith.

So when Jesus gives you a warning that judgment is near, don’t wait. Wake up, fill your lamp with the oil of the Holy Spirit, walk in the light of God’s Word.

And do it today.

As it says in Revelation 16:15:

“Behold, I come like a thief! Blessed is he who stays awake and keeps his clothes with him, so that he may not go naked and be shamefully exposed.”

Next week, we will move on to the rest of this prophecy about megas seismos. Record-setting storms— have they increased? Find out in Part 2!

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One Response to “Prophecy Alert: Earthquakes Officially on the Rise”

  1. Well done Monica. Factually proved by man’s statistics and Spiritually confirmed through God’s word!

    Like

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